BTCUSD slipped nearly 4% this past week, consolidating around $114K after retreating from recent highs near $124K. The pullback reflects broader macro uncertainty as investors digest mixed signals from global risk markets. Still, Bitcoin's structural story remains intact, underpinned by persistent institutional demand and regulatory tailwinds.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital despite volatility, with $548 million of inflows in August lifting total ETF AUM close to $152 billion. This resilience signals long-term conviction from professional allocators and suggests dips are still being bought. On the policy side, USUS initiatives—from expanding retirement-plan access to Bitcoin to proposals for a strategic national reserve—reinforce Bitcoin's mainstream legitimacy, adding to investor confidence.
Technical Outlook
BTCUSD is testing a crucial $114K—$115K support zone. Holding this area is key to maintaining bullish momentum. Upside resistance lies near $118K—$120K; a breakout above could reopen the path toward $124K and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold support risks triggering a deeper correction, with analysts eyeing potential downside targets at $94K—$88K if bearish wedge patterns play out.
1. Pullback amid consolidation
Bitcoin has dropped nearly 4% over the past week, slipping to around $114K, in a broader consolidation after recent highs near $124K. Markets are pausing amid macro uncertainty.
2. ETF flows sustain structural support
Despite price volatility, institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs remains robust. August has seen fresh inflows totaling $548 million, pushing total ETF AUM nearly to $152 billion. The resilience of inflows—even during downturns—suggests long-term conviction among professional allocators.
3. Regulatory tailwinds & sentiment boost
Supportive US policy continues to underpin crypto optimism—ranging from retirement-plan access to proposals for a USUS strategic Bitcoin reserve. These developments reinforce Bitcoin's growing institutional legitimacy.
4. Technical setup: key levels in focus
Technically, BTC is approaching a key support zone between $114K and $115K. Resistance lies at $118K—$120K. Analysts warn of a potential downside if bearish patterns, like a rising wedge breakdown, continue, possibly pushing BTC toward $88K—$94K.
BTCUSD H4 Timeframe
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On this BTCUSD H4 chart:
Price broke out of a descending trendline, showing an initial bullish impulse. However, the bullish run quickly stalled near the 0.0% Fibonacci level, where sellers regained control. This rejection triggered a substantial decline, driving price back below key retracement zones.
Currently, price is reacting around the 76.4% Fibonacci level after a sharp drop from the highs. The structure suggests that bulls are attempting to defend this zone, but the momentum remains fragile. If buyers gain short-term traction, a corrective pullback toward the mid-Fibonacci levels (38.2%–50%) is possible.
Key confluences strengthening the bearish-to-corrective outlook:
- Clear rejection from the 0.0% Fib extension high.
- Strong bearish candles breaking below the 38.2% and 50% retracements.
- Price stabilizing near the 76.4% Fib — a potential bounce zone for a corrective rally.
- Previous broken support levels are acting as resistance overhead.
Direction: Bullish
Target- 119791.29
Invalidation- 110758.47
CONCLUSION
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