2020-03-27 • Updated
You cannot avoid the feeling that something is lurking in the oil market. WTI at $22 per barrel, Brent at $25, diminished fluctuation… Some will say oil is just “tired” of moving and wants to rest. In the end, the weekend is coming. But where will it go? And what’s behind the scene here?
No, that’s not a new oil company. Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and its de-facto ruler is also known as MbS. He will be saying his word on crude supply next week: 31 March is the last day of the current term on agreed oil supply quantities. His last announced plans were to increase Saudi Arabia’s exports to 12.5mln barrels per day.
Russian officials previously informed that they would be ready to increase the supply through Rosneft by 300,000mln barrels per day in response. Now, as little as spare capacity seems in comparison to that of Saudi Arabia, that is not that crucial: Russia’s main weapon is not adding new supplies but rather holding on to its current level. Tactically, Russia is in a defensive strategy with the objective to hold the market, while Saudi Arabia is on the offensive with the objective to conquer the market; European market, specifically. Tactically, the one who attacks is the one to bring more firepower.
Saudi Arabia offers huge discounts on its crude and huge quantities. No one can counter that. But everything gains value in the context of the situation. What is the context now?
With 100mln barrels of oil pumped daily, there is 20% oversupply at this rate. Oil tanks are so full that there is nowhere to store it. In this context, factoring in demand 20mln-bpd lower than the recent levels brings to the conclusion that it doesn’t bring too much advantage to Saudi Arabia to offer something that will surely be over the top and not required in the nearest future, and even if it was, there will be no place to store it.
No one really knows. Here are some of the fresh headlines though.
It looks like observers have more faith in the post-virus global economic recovery than in the oil markets’ nearest future. We will see on April 1. As some observers mentioned, $3 per barrel is not an impossible scenario now. Either way, you can make profits on that – just watch the moment.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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